Tropical Wave to Impact Portions ofCentral and Southern Florida
A tropical wave is currently locatedover the northwest Bahamas and the
Florida Straits. Additional organization of this disturbance will be
slow, however it will bring periods of strong gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall to portions of central and southern Florida and the
Florida Keys over the next day or so
SRN NV. PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER THREATS ARE ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS
JUXTAPOSED WITH A DRY AIR MASS AS WELL AS POSSIBLE DRY TSTMS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER
THE CNTRL PLAINS AND SRN IA.
...FAR NERN CA...SERN ORE...NWRN NV...SERN ID... ENHANCED SWLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW INDUCED BY THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LOW ACROSS WA WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS IN AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR
MASS OVER THE REGION. SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS NEAR 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL RESULT IN MIN RH VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT. THE CORRELATION OF
ELEVATEDWIND SPEEDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SOME BRIEFLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS
MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NERN CA AND SERN ORE...BUT THE
MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS COMBINED WITH ANTICIPATED SHORT DURATION OF THE
ELEVATED WINDS PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR AN CRITICAL RISK. ...SIERRAS
NEWD THROUGH NV INTO SRN ID... 00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND EARLY MORNING SATELLITE-DERIVED PWAT DATA DEPICT A MOISTURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE CNTRL CONUS HIGH. PWAT VALUES
DECREASE FROM NEAR 1 INCH OVER CNTRL UT TO LESS THAN 0.5 INCH OVER
WRN NV. INCREASED SWLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC LIFT FROM THE
SIERRAS NEWD INTO SRN ID. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
INCREASE GRADUALLY INCREASE AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SRN AZ. THIS
OROGRAPHIC LIFT COMBINED WITH LOW INSTABILITY RESULTANT FROM THE
MID-LEVELMOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING /MLCAPE FROM 100 TO 500 J/KG/
WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY. GIVENTHE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER...STORM MOTION GREATER THAN 20 KTS...AND MODEST MOISTURE...A
FEW DRY TSTMS APPEAR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST E OF THE
SIERRAS. HOWEVER...DRY TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO
ISOLATED TO NEED A CRITICAL DELINEATION. TSTM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE
HIGHER ACROSS AREAS FARTHER S /SRN NV AND AZ/ ANDE /WY AND UT/ BUT
AMPLE MOISTURE SHOULD EXIST FOR WET TSTMS. ...ERN CO NEWD INTO
SRN IA... EARLY MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A SFC LOWCENTERED
NEAR E-CNTRL NEB/SD BORDER AS WELL AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
THE NEB PANHANDLE NEWD THROUGH THE SFC LOW INTO SRNMN. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ENHANCING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND ERN MIDDLE MS VALLEY.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUSTAINED SWLY WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 20
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER 100 WILL SUPPORT
VERY DRY CONDITIONS WITH MINRH VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT. AT THIS
TIME...STRENGTH AND DURATIONOF THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
JUST BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND A CRITICAL DELINEATION WILL NOT BE
OUTLINED. HOWEVER...THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE REEXAMINED FOR A
POSSIBLE UPGRADE DURING DAY1 UPDATE IF FUEL MOISTURE BELOW 3 GM -
CURRENT AT 4000 FEET ZERO GM - MODEL/OBSERVATION DATA SUGGESTS
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE WIND STRENGTH
AND DURATION ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/firecomp.gif
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