ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON
ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY ---
WARNING POSITION: 281800Z --- NEAR 11.4N 126.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX
HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND
DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII
VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 11.4N 126.4E ---
FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 13.0N 124.4E MAX SUSTAINED
WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 14.6N 122.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/
14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 16.3N 119.8E MAX
SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN
WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED
OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 18.1N 117.7E MAX SUSTAINED
WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 21.4N 113.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08
KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z ---
23.6N 110.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII
VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120
HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 26.0N 109.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020
KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN140 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0N 104.5W TO 17.6N 105.3WWITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFYISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS ATTHIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 281800Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATEDNEAR 10.8N 104.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS
PERSISTED NEAR 10.8N 104.3W, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
ACAPULCO, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED
UNDERNEATH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. A 281503Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS THE CONSOLIDATING LLCC AND INDICATES FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE
BANDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A 281601Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS
INDICATED 15-20 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS WELL AS LOW (5 TO 10 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009
MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH.
S$
--
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