Thursday, May 23, 2013

GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH STILL SLUGGISH, WITH PROSPECT OF GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT – UN REPORT

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From: UNNews <UNNews@un.org>
Date: 23 May 2013 13:00:01 -0400
Subject: GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH STILL SLUGGISH, WITH PROSPECT OF
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT – UN REPORT
To: news11@ny-mail-p-lb-028.ptc.un.org

GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH STILL SLUGGISH, WITH PROSPECT OF GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT – UN REPORTNew York, May 23 2013 1:00PMGlobal economic
growth will continue to be "below potential" this year, according to a
report released today by the United Nations that adds that job
creation will be vital to spur recovery.

The UN <i><"http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp2013/wesp13update.pdf">World
Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) 2013</i> mid-year update
<"http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp2013/Press_release.pdf">notes
that, since late 2012, new policy initiatives in major developed
economies have reduced systemic risks and helped stabilize consumer,
business and investor confidence, but with very limited improvement in
economic growth.

"The main priority for policymakers worldwide should be to support a
robust and balanced global recovery, with a focus on promoting job
creation," said Shamshad Akhtar, UN Assistant Secretary-General for
Economic Development.

Speaking at the launch of the mid-year update, Ms. Akhtar noted that
the lingering global slowdown has been replaced by "measurable
improvements," such as United States growth gaining momentum and Japan
growing by 3.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2013.

"Emerging economies are growing at below potential but good growth
rates," she added. "The multi-tracked growth pattern is likely to
persist and drive the outlook for the rest of 2013 and 2014."

When the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) published
the <i>World Economic Situation and Prospects 2013</i> last December,
it noted that global growth weakened considerably during 2012 and is
expected to remain subdued in the coming two years.

It stated that the global economy is expected to grow at 2.4 per cent
in 2013 and 3.2 per cent in 2014. With existing policies and growth
trends, it added, it may take at least another five years for Europe
and the United States to make up for the job losses caused by the
so-called Great Recession of 2008-2009.

According to the update, global growth has been revised slightly
downward from the forecasts presented in December. Growth of world
gross product (WGP) is now projected at 2.3 per cent in 2013, the same
pace as in 2012, before gradually strengthening to 3.1 per cent in
2014, supported by an expected pickup in activity in the US.

"The report warns that risks are still tilted to the downside and have
the potential to derail, once again, the still feeble recovery of the
world economy," said a news release on the report. "Short-term risks
associated with the situation in the euro area, fiscal adjustments in
the US and the sharp slowdown in large developing countries have
diminished, but not disappeared."

In addition, some new medium-term risks have emerged, including
potentially adverse effects of the "unconventional monetary measures"
in developed economies, such as Japan and the US, on global financial
stability.
The report shows ongoing weaknesses in developed economies, which
continue to face major risks and uncertainties. In the euro area, the
risk of a near-term break-up has declined considerably, but the
economic situation remains "dire."

In the US, the avoidance of the fiscal cliff and expansion of monetary
easing, along with gradual recovery in the housing sector, have
somewhat improved growth prospects. Economic growth there is forecast
to slow to 1.9 per cent in 2013, before picking up to 2.6 per cent in
2014.

In Japan, policymakers have taken "bold expansionary measures" in an
attempt to resuscitate the economy from the grip of deflation, but the
results of these policies remain "uncertain." Gross domestic product
(GDP) growth is projected at 1.3 per cent in 2013 and 1.6 per cent in
2014.

Many large developing countries, including Brazil, China, India and
Russia, saw a significant deceleration in GDP growth in the past two
years.

Although the report predicts GDP growth in China to be 7.8 per cent in
2013 and 7.7 per cent in 2014, an unexpected drop in China's growth to
about 5 per cent would impact economic activity worldwide, especially
in commodity-exporting developing countries.

The employment situation remains a key policy challenge in a large
number of economies, according to the report, which noted that
unemployment in the euro area has reached an all-time high and is
forecast to average 12.8 per cent in 2014.

The US unemployment rate has fallen, but remains high by historical
standards, and the drop partly reflects a significant decline in
labour force participation. Some further improvement is expected in
the outlook period, with US unemployment forecast to average 7 per
cent in 2014.

In most developing regions, labour markets have not suffered as
extensively from weak demand. In parts of East Asia and South America,
unemployment rates have dropped below the levels seen before the
financial crisis. By contrast, employment continues to be a key
problem in many African countries, despite relatively strong growth in
recent years.

"A prolonged period of subdued growth and fiscal austerity in many
economies has added about 4 million more to the ranks of the
unemployed," noted Ms. Akhtar. "Countries should lay out a credible
plan for fiscal consolidation according to their particular
circumstances with due regard to pace and sequencing, as well as
qualitatively supporting job creation and social protection."May 23
2013 1:00PM
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