TROPICAL STORM EXPECTED TO HURRICANE AS IT LEAVES HAITI UPON ENTRANCE INTO WARM WATERS

GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD HAITI...
11:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 24
Location: 17.7°N 72.5°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph
ON A MOSTLY NORTHWESTWARD HEADING TOWARD FLORIDA ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
AREA OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FORECAST
POSITIONS AND MAX* WINDS IN IT 25/0300Z 17.7N 72.5W 64KT 70 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 19.4N 73.1W 54 KT 60 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 21.7N 75.7W
54 KT 60 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 23.4N 79.4W 65 KT 72 MPH 48H 27/0000Z
24.9N 80.6W 70 KT 78 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 27.1N 82.6W 72KT 80 MPH
*GUST LIKELY TO PLUS 15KTS 17 MPH AND ADDING FOREWARD MOTION OF 10 TO
14 KTS LEADS GUST TO NEAR 100KTS 111MPH AT MATURE OF HURRICANE ALONG
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO - MODEL CHANGE IS BASED ON A SMALL AFFECTED
MOUNTAIN AREA OF PR BEFORE CONTINUING INTO A REGION OF HAITI AND IN
SUCH LITTLE DRAG OF THE TROPICAL HIGH AFFECT AND LESS SIGN OF
SPLITTING OF THE RIDGE AS SHOWN UPSTREAM IN BOTH SUFACE AND UPPER AIR
- WATER AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA IS DRAWING FACTOR IN THE PULL BACK ON ITSELF IN WIND MODELS
AND IN SUCH IS THE SLOWING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AS
WESTERIES DO SHOW SOMEWHAT RETROGRADE AS RIDGE IN THE PACIFIC INTO
ALASKA BEGIN TO CURL INTO A DEEPING LOW CUTTING OFF THE MOVE OF THE
STROM SUPPORT OF TROPICAL HIGH AS GULF OF MEXICO IN CENTRAL OF MODEL
AS SPOKEN OF - LACK CURRENT SUPPORT ON THE SURFACE OF SAL AND
TEMPERATURE.
S$

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