NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND MODEL AOCC DISCUSSION OF FUTURE PATH CONFIDENCE OF DEVELOPING HURRICANE

WITH DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED TO A RATHER SMALL AREA NORTH AND EAST OF
THE CENTER STILL APPEARS TO BE BATTLING THE EFFECTS OF SOME LOW-TO
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR OF SMALL HIGH RIDGE IN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE VERY WARM MID 80'S AND
NEAR 90 DEGREES NEAR SOUTHWEST COAST OF INFLUENCE OF EVERGLADES ON THE
KEYS - SHOWS A LITTLE SLOWER RATE OF STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE MORE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND SHOW TURNING
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF COAST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND
SHOWING A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD TURN CONFIDENCE IN THE
LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE LOW WITH NHC...AND IT IS TOO EARLY
TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN YET MODEL AOCC BRING 2ND LANDFALL
BETWEEN TAMPA AND BIG BEND AREA NEAR TARPOON SPRINGS TO CEDAR KEYS
BASED ON VERY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES - LACKING HIGH MOUNTAINS OVER
FLORIDA LAND MASS NOT LIKE THE TEARING AFFECT OF PR AREAS OF HAITI AND
CUBA AND SUCH MID FLORIDA LAKES AND ATLANTIC GULF STREAM GOOD FEED FOR
CONTINUE EYE NEAR THE LAND MASS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA.
12H 26/1800Z 24.2N 80.2W 60 KT 67 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 25.5N 81.1W 65 KT 72 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 26.9N 81.9W 70 KT 77 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 28.1N 81.5W 90 KT 100 MPH


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